Shakeout + 3 (aka Shakeout Plus 3)

In 1940, Jesse Livermore described a concept that eventually became known as a shakeout + 3, as described by William O’Neil.

Jesse’s idea was simple, after a shakeout to a low, if there is another shakeout that undercuts the previous low, the buy price becomes the previous low price plus 10% of that low. Jesse referred to this as a pivotal point.

The “+ 3” aspect came about as O’Neil’s example was based on a stock that was $30/share, hence, 10% of $30 is $3, so it was known as a shakeout + $3.

Calculating Shakeout

On November 3rd, 2020 AMD setup a potential shakeout + 3 early entry. It starts with a recent low undercutting a previous low:

Using the two lows shown above, here are the steps to calculate a shakeout + 3 entry point:

Step #1 - Get two recent low values:

Original low: $73.85 Undercut low: 73.76

Step #2: Calculate prices at 5% and 10% of original low:

5% of $73.85 = $3.70 10% of $73.85 = $7.40

Step #3 - Calculate early entry range:

The range is the original low plus the 5% and 10% values from above: Range = $77.55 ($73.85 + $3.70) to $81.25 ($73.85 + $7.40)

Step #4 - Look for an area of resistance:

As with the range, an area of resistance was not part of the original concept described by Livermore or O’Neil. Using prior resistance you can find a more logical area to enter a trade.

In the figure below I’ve highlighted the early entry range ($77.55 to $81.25). The orange line is an area of resistance, notice several times in the past the price action didn’t move beyond that level.

Shakeout +3 - Cheat Sheets